Blogs

European Sovereign Debt crisis: Governments need to get ahead of the curve

EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS:
GOVERNMENTS NEED TO GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE

The Greek debt crisis carries the serious risk of spreading to other potential weak links in the Euro area and the market reaction to the bail out plan for Greece has highlighted the persistent risk of contagion that could rapidly morph into an otherwise considerably more serious European debt crisis.

CAN THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN ENTER A SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS?

CAN THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN ENTER A
SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS?

Economic disequilibria only turn into crisis when confidence (in the willingness or ability to address the perceived problems) falters.

In the aftermath of the Great Recession most countries have registered a dramatic increase in fiscal imbalances.

CHOIX D'ACTIFS STRATEGIQUES D'INVESTISSEMENT

La première considération pour un investisseur qui se soucie de la maîtrise des risques dans son portefeuille a trait à l’éventuel risque de change par rapport à sa monnaie de base. Dans cet article, le portefeuille d’investissement qui m’occupe a pour monnaie de base l’Euro.

Pour une activité de gestion initiée en janvier 2010 j’ai privilégié des actifs libellés en monnaies dont le risque est à la hausse par rapport à l’euro sans avoir encore a ce stade à me soucier d’une couverture à terme du risque de change au moment ou un tournant majeur de l’euro le rendra nécessaire.

Natural gas a major opportunity on close watch

On any recovery strategy the energy complex needs to be a significant component of a portfolio.

While oil offers substantial promise of further price gains in the medium and long term we would ideally like to see prices reset towards the 57.5 dollars a barrel, a level which would more efficiently protect against tactical corrective risk and allow a safer positioning for a challenge to the current barrier set at 77-78. Once this level is overwhelmed – a question of when not if- oil prices can be expected to proceed towards 90 and in the longer term reach a clear target at 120.

Bears can miss one of the most remarkable recoveries in post war history.

The world has registered the most serious economic and financial crisis in 70 years with devastating consequences sparing few asset classes. At the end of last winter I called a bottom to the rout and predicted a recovery in the markets that would be commensurate to the scale of the disaster (see previous papers).

NEW LONG TERM BULL CYCLE COMPLETING FIRST MOVE

NEW LONG TERM BULL CYCLE COMPLETING FIRST MOVE

In the late part of last winter we called a bottom for the economic cycle in the second quarter and anticipated a “30 to 50 percent rise in stocks accompanied by a rise in bond yields. (See Markets on Track for a Turn on Mar 18, 2009 and •American Economy About to Hit Bottom on Mar 12, 2009)