aferre's blog

THE US ECONOMY AND MARKETS ARE ON TRACK FOR A TURN

In a recent paper (American Economy About to hit Bottom-The Turn in the Cycle) we have argued –to a predictably consensual wall of skepticism- that 1/ The American economy was hitting bottom in the second quarter of 2009 and 2/ that markets would bounce from lows and produce rallies of 30-50% before the year is out.

The jury is still out on both but we have no reason to hedge our bets. Most investors are still missing out on the small details that portend change.

AMERICAN ECONOMY ABOUT TO HIT BOTTOM, THE TURN IN THE CYCLE

The darkest hour is upon us and the first signs of recovery for the American economy will be seen in the second quarter confirming that an historical bear market in equities is already bottoming while a long term rise emerges for Treasury yields.